As promised, here's a more thorough analysis of the impact of Jamie Dunn re-entering the Brisbane radio scene. I've done a station-by-station rundown, based on the assumption that there will be no more changes in the breakfast shifts. This is by no means certain, though - especially as there are rumours, backed by strong reasoning, of changes at several stations, including (drum roll please) market leader Nova 106.9! This analysis also doesn't take into account the impact of digital radio and multi-channelling, which really won't kick in until enough people buy digital receivers - and that could be many years.
4BC: The success of Jamie Dunn depends on his ability to adapt to the talk format, keep the lion's share of the station's existing listeners and bring over new listeners from the other AM stations and, crucially, the FM band.
612ABC: The local ABC station should pick up some disaffected BC listeners but may initially lose some people who want to sample what Dunn is up to. In the long term, I see Aunty's audience staying steady and perhaps even growing. Going on the experience in other states, by the end of the year the ABC and 4BC should command at least 25 percent of the total audience, especially in breakfast
Nova 106.9: The No.1 station should remain at the top of the heap as long as it can keep its breakfast team together, or at least substantially so. I've been saying Meshel Laurie will go back down south for a long time now, and one day I'll be right. I understand there are reasons why one or two of the other presenters might want to move on, too. If Dunn really clicks at BC, Nova may not be No.1 overall but it should lead the FM pack.
B105: Although it has made some ratings gains this year, the former market leader is still doing poorly. The challenge right now for its owners Austereo (who also own Triple M) is whether to stick with what they've got or try something new. There are dangers in both approaches. I don't expect the Jamie Dunn factor to have too much impact, though, as most of his fans have already defected to Triple M or 97.3FM. If the Nova breakfast show does fall over, B105's in with a chance to make some gains - but Nova is strong throughout the day and by no means an easy beat.
Triple M: I think the Ms are in for a tough ride, at least early in the new year. With 97.3 already appealing to the female listeners in the 29-plus demographic and BC sure to target its 40-plus listeners (particularly the tradesmen and the stay-at-home mums), Triple M has a lot to lose. However, I'd never write off Ian Skippen - and, despite all the snide remarks he sends in his former colleague's directions, neither would Jamie Dunn.
97.3FM: The female-skewed music station will do OK if it sticks to its knitting. The only risk it has is that if some of the folks who tune in to hear Robyn Bailey are actually Jamie Dunn fans nostalgic for when they were together on B105.
4KQ: Things haven't been terribly bright for KQ, which was once a major contender. There's a chance they will pick up some disaffected listeners from BC but I think the station's best hope is to try to hold its own.
4BH: Again, I can't see much change. BH is run on the smell of an oily rag, and will benefit commercially from any extra revenue Dunn can attract to it via its sister station 4BC. It's not meant to attract huge ratings, and it won't.